The ERA5 Extreme Seasons Explorer as a Basis for Research at the Weather and Climate Interface,Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society |
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The ERA5 Extreme Seasons Explorer as a Basis for Research at the Weather and Climate Interface,Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
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Abstract Meteorological extremes on the seasonal time scale have received increased attention due to their relevance for society and economy. A recently developed approach to identify seasonal extremes is applied here to ERA5 reanalyses from 1950 to 2020 to identify hot and cold, wet and dry, and stormy and calm extreme seasons globally. The approach consists of (i) fitting a statistical model to seasonal mean values (of temperature, precipitation, and wind speed) at each grid point, (ii) selecting a local return period threshold above which seasonal mean values are deemed extreme, and (iii) forming spatially coherent extreme season objects. The paper introduces the ERA5 extreme season explorer, an open-access web portal enabling researchers to visualize and download extreme season objects of any of the six types in their region of interest, for further investigating their underlying dynamics, statistical properties, and impacts. To illustrate the potential of our extreme season objects, we first discuss the top 10 cold winters in ERA5 globally and then focus on an unusual triple-compound extreme season in winter 1953/54 in Europe, which was simultaneously extremely cold, dry, and calm. We show that detailed analysis of weather system dynamics, including cyclones, blocks, jets, and Rossby waves, provides important insight into the processes leading to extreme seasons. In summary, this study presents for the first time a catalogue of objectively identified extreme seasons in the last decades, shows exemplarily how large-scale dynamics can lead to such seasons, and with the help of the explorer supports the community in accelerating research in this important area at the interface of weather and climate dynamics.
中文翻译：
摘要 季节性时间尺度上的气象极端事件因其与社会和经济的相关性而受到越来越多的关注。此处将最近开发的识别季节性极端事件的方法应用于 1950 年至 2020 年的 ERA5 再分析，以识别全球的炎热和寒冷、潮湿和干燥以及暴风雨和平静的极端季节。该方法包括（i）将统计模型拟合到每个网格点的季节性平均值（温度、降水和风速），（ii）选择当地重现期阈值，高于该阈值的季节性平均值被认为是极端的，以及（ iii) 形成空间连贯的极端季节天体。该论文介绍了 ERA5 极端季节浏览器，这是一个开放访问的门户网站，使研究人员能够可视化和下载他们感兴趣区域中六种类型中任何一种的极端季节对象，进一步研究它们的潜在动态、统计特性和影响。为了说明我们的极端季节对象的潜力，我们首先讨论全球 ERA5 中的前 10 个寒冷的冬天，然后关注欧洲 1953/54 冬季不寻常的三重复合极端季节，该季节同时极端寒冷、干燥和平静. 我们展示了对天气系统动力学（包括旋风、阻塞、急流和罗斯贝波）的详细分析，为了解导致极端季节的过程提供了重要的见解。总而言之，这项研究首次提出了过去几十年客观确定的极端季节的目录，示例性地展示了大规模动态如何导致这样的季节， |
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